Streamflow Variability (1965 to 1998) in Five Northwest Territories and Nunavut Rivers
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In Canada, the Northwest Territories and Nunavut have been characterized as two regions prone to anthropogenically-forced climate change. This study focuses on identifying trends in streamflow on selected rivers in the two territories. Streamflow data from five Water Survey of Canada hydrometric stations were analyzed, with the assumption that there are trend, cyclic and stochastic components in the 1965–1998 time series. Only two statistically significant linear trends in mean annual streamflow, spring freshet timing or magnitude were identified. Warmer early spring temperatures were found to bring earlier spring freshets in mainland Nunavut. Neither exhibited linear trends from 1965 to 1998. Increasing summer temperatures in the Northwest Territories have not resulted in increases in evapotranspiration and a decrease in water available for runoff, perhaps because of feedbacks which stabilize the hydrologic regime. The cyclic trends in many of the time series are related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index, which is a measure of north Pacific sea surface temperatures and sea level pressure. There was a six year lag between a mid-1970s shift to a warm PDO phase and wetter conditions in arctic rivers. This lag was extended to ten years at the subarctic rivers because of higher storage demands after the 1965–1975 dry period. The lack of a linear trend in the PDO index between 1965 and 1998 corroborates the lack of linear trends in the mean annual streamflow time series. In light of the findings, further research is recommended on the nature of possible hydrologic feedbacks that control northern runoff regimes and the processes which link north Pacific temperature and northern Canadian streamflow regimes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".