The role of synoptic‐scale circulation in the linkage between large‐scale ocean–atmosphere indices and winter surface climate in British Columbia, Canada
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract In much of North America, variables such as temperature, precipitation, snowpack and streamflow are modulated by modes of large‐scale ocean‐atmosphere variability such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific North American Pattern (PNA). In this study, we test the hypothesis that the influence of these modes on air temperature and precipitation in British Columbia (BC), Canada, can be explained in relation to changes in frequencies of synoptic‐scale circulation types. A catalogue of 13 circulation types was derived by classifying daily mean sea‐level pressure (MSLP) grids from 1948 to 2003. The grids cover BC and the North Pacific and were subjected to a standard pattern recognition algorithm employing principal component analysis followed by cluster analysis on the component scores. The circulation types are generally associated with distinctive patterns of precipitation and air temperature anomalies across BC. Multiple linear regressions for selected stations in BC using the type frequencies as predictors explain up to 75% of the variance of mean winter temperature and 65% of winter precipitation. The frequencies of most circulation types vary significantly between the different phases of ENSO, PDO and PNA in a manner consistent with the temperature anomalies associated with those modes and, to a lesser extent, with the more complex precipitation anomalies. In addition, however, average temperatures and precipitation amounts for some circulation types differ systematically between phases of ENSO and PDO. Subsequent analysis revealed distinct differences among ENSO and PDO phases in the upper‐level circulation patterns associated with some surface types. A major part of the teleconnections can be explained through variations in the frequencies of synoptic‐scale circulation types, but systematic within‐type variability, particularly with PDO and PNA, can additionally influence the surface climate. Copyright © 2005 Royal Meteorological Society.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it