Intermittency and Phase Persistence in a Babcock-Leighton Model of the Solar Cycle
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We present and discuss a numerical simulation of the solar cycle based on the Babcock-Leighton mechanism of poloidal field regeneration by the surface decay of sunspots. The simulation includes low-amplitude stochastic noise and exhibits intermittency, i.e., quiescent episodes of strongly reduced amplitude irregularly interspersed between epochs of "normal" cyclic behavior. We show that the phase of the cycle can persist across these quiescent episodes, a feature normally not expected from intermittency. We ascribe this behavior to the regulatory influence of meridional circulation in the solar convective envelope, which is known to be the primary determinant of cycle period in this class of dynamo models. We also discuss similarities and differences between these results and the behavior of the sunspot cycle during the Maunder minimum of solar activity.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it