Distributed maximum likelihood estimation for flow and speed density prediction in distributed traffic detectors with Gaussian mixture model assumption
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this study a distributed maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) has been presented to estimate ML function of traffic flow and mean traffic speed in a freeway. This algorithm uses traffic measurements including volume, occupancy and mean speed which gathered by some inductive loop detectors. These traffic detectors (traffic sensors) located in certain distances in the freeway network such that they establish a distributed sensor network (DSN). The presented distributed estimator has employed a distributed expectation maximisation algorithm to calculate MLE. In the E-step of this algorithm, each sensor node independently calculates local sufficient statistics by using local observations. A consensus filter is used to diffuse local sufficient statistics to neighbours and estimate global sufficient statistics in each node. In the M-step of this algorithm, each sensor node uses the estimated global sufficient statistics to update model parameters of the Gaussian mixtures, which can maximise the log-likelihood in the same way as in the standard EM algorithm. As the consensus filter only requires each node to communicate with its neighbours, the distributed algorithm is scalable and robust. A set of field traffic data from Minnesota freeway network has been used to simulate and verify the proposed distributed estimator performance.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it