An Emerging Consensus on the US Threat: the United States according to PLA officers
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Though the PLA elite perceptions of the United States have fluctuated over time, there has been some regularity in the evolution of their perceptions.Comparing the dominant perceptions of the United States among different generations of Chinese military elites in the PRC, we find that the PLA elite perceptions of US intentions have been foremost influenced by China's strategic interest in a certain period, rather than the level and intensity of bilateral exchanges at the time.Using the case of US arms sales to Taiwan and the case of the South China Sea and the Diaoyu Islands, we try to assess how consistent and persistent PLA elite perceptions of the US have been in recent years.While we agree that these outspoken military men cannot be taken on the surface as indicative of China's national policies, we will also point out several important dimensions that are likely to allow the PLA to play a more influential role in setting the agenda for China's strategic interest in the era of Xi Jinping.China's top civilian leadership, when talking about Sino-US relations in the era of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, always seems to be consolatory, emphasizing the importance and mutual benefits of the bilateral relations.While they do not like certain aspects of US policies, such as selling arms to Taiwan, even their repudiation of Washington is always couched in very dry and non-inflammatory language.The approach taken by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of lashing out at the United States, however, is vivid and vehement.In the first four years since President Obama came into office in 2009, Washington and Beijing have been trying to manage their volatile bilateral relations, but the rhetorical interventions by these PLA officers have made it hard for the Chinese leadership to present a coherent and cohesive policy towards the United States.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it