Spectral and dynamical hints on the time scale of preparation of the 5 April 2003 explosion at Stromboli volcano
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Stromboli volcano is well known for its continuous strombolian activity. Moreover, the volcano occasionally shows effusive phases, the latest in 19851986. On 28 December 2002 Stromboli entered a new effusive phase, accompanied by different paroxysmal events that led to considerable hazards for inhabitants and tourists on the island of Stromboli. On 30 December 2002 a major sector collapse affected the Sciara del Fuoco slope and initiated a tsunami. On 5 April 2003 a powerful explosion, which can be compared in size with the most recent explosion in 1930, covered a large part of the normally tourist accessible summit area with bombs. As this explosion was not forecasted, although the island was by then effectively monitored by a dense deployment of instruments, in this paper, we tackle the problem of highlighting the time scale of preparation of this event and conduct a search for possible precursors. For this purpose, we analyze the seismic data preceding the paroxysm with spectral and dynamical methods, highlighting that this paroxysmal event can be seen as the final result of a dynamical phase that started at least 2.5 h before the event. Therefore, this is the time scale during which the search can and should be made for possible precursors. Moreover, the application of the "material failure forecast" method suggests that this final dynamical phase may be just the final acceleration of a process that was building up for at least several days prior to the event.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it