Tundra lake changes from 1978 to 2001 on the Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula, western Canadian Arctic
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Landsat scenes spanning 1978–2001 were used to classify thermokarst lake area and determine changes in lake coverage on the Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula in northwestern Canada. Changes in total lake area between scenes were substantial, spanning a 14% increase and 11% decrease, mostly owing to changes in the area of lakes >1.3 km 2 in area. Increases in total lake area occurred primarily between 1978–1992, and decreases between 1992–2001. Differences in total lake area between scenes from different years depend strongly on cumulative precipitation in the 12 month period preceding scene acquisition (r 2 = 0.82), and not on summer or mean annual air temperature (MAAT). Our results indicate that precipitation is the primary factor influencing the areal extent of lakes as detected by remote sensing. On the Tuktoyaktuk Peninsula, persistent lake area changes (if any) such as might occur by regional warming or changes in evaporation/precipitation balance over decades, are well‐masked by short‐term climatological changes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".