The importance of influence diagnostics: examples from Snake River chinook salmon spawner-recruit models
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The rapid decline of some salmonid populations in the Columbia River Basin led investigators to analyze spawner-recruit (SR) data in order to understand the potential gains of improving main-stem passage conditions and quantify the effectiveness of the juvenile transportation program. Direct measurements of passage survival and transportation were not always available, so instead, the researchers attempted to tease out the passage or transportation effects by using trends in production estimated from SR models. Small subsets of data, or even single observations, highly influenced the estimates of passage survival and transportation effectiveness derived from these models. For stream-type chinook salmon, deleting 1 of 13 stocks changed the estimate of main-stem passage survival from 11 to 34%. For ocean-type chinook salmon, the conclusion that transportation should be immediately halted hinged on a single observation. The Snake River salmon SR models starkly illustrate the importance of using influence diagnostics to temper inferences.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.038 | 0.186 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.005 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".