Economic Growth, Regional Savings and FDI in Sub-Saharan Africa: Trivariate Causality and Error Correction Modeling Approach
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Empirical studies examining the dynamic causal relationship between key macroeconomic variables using varied forms of bivariate causality methodology abound in the macroeconomic and finance literature. Causal inference based on such bivariate causality approach however, has been criticized for its inherent likelihood to draw causal inference or attribute causation to variables in scenarios where an omitted variable might have a better claim; Lutkephol (1982), Umberto Triacca (1998). This study is modeled to reduce this inherent weakness by employing trivariate causality methodology through error correction approach. Using aggregate data on Sub-Sahara Africa spanning the period 1977 to 2010, this study finds joint uni-directional causal relationship running from FDI and Gross Regional Savings growth to regional GDP growth. Empirical results further document additional uni-directional joint causal relationship stemming from GDP growth and Gross Regional Savings to growth in FDI inflow into the sub-region.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it