Fallout in the Sahel: the geographic spread of conflict from Libya to Mali
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This article seeks to examine the commonly-assumed notion that the Libyan Civil War generated the current conflict in Mali. It seeks to apply the causal mechanisms from the theories of escalation and diffusion/contagion to the Libya-Mali case, to determine if such a link can be made. Using Lake and Rothchild's (1996) framework, this article finds that, with some modifications to include non-state actors, mechanisms from both theories were at play in this case. Conflict in Mali did occur as the result of escalation and diffusion/contagion mechanisms from the Libyan Civil War. The article then proceeds to outline how these mechanisms could be applied to determine if conflict could spread outwards from Mali.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it