Towards the NPT Review Conference: Deceptive Ease of the Third PrepCom—No Harbinger of Miracle
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Notes1 "Mensaje Inaugural del Presidente de la III Comision Preparatoria de la Conferencia de Examen del 2015 del Tratado para la No Proliferacion Nuclear, Nueva York, 28 de Abril de 2014," <http://papersmart.unmeetings.org/media2/2927439/iiiprepcom2014w1.pdf>, last accessed August 9, 2014.2 In accordance with the Final Document adopted at the 2000 Review Conference. "2000 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Final Document," United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs, <http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/pdf/finaldocs/2000%20-%20NY%20-%20NPT%20Review%20Conference%20-%20Final%20Document%20Parts%20I%20and%20II.pdf>, last accessed August 9, 2014.3 The international treaty on the Republic of Crimea's accession to the Russian Federation was signed on March 18, 2014. On the same day, French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius announced that the Western countries had agreed to suspend Russia's membership of the G8.4 "Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)," Text of the Treaty, United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs, <http://www.un.org/disarmament/WMD/Nuclear/NPTtext.shtml>, last accessed August 26, 2014.5 Author's interview, New York, May 2014.6 At the same time, the Court failed to reach a final verdict on whether the use of nuclear weapons is acceptable if the very existence of a state is under threat.7 The New Agenda Coalition was established in 1998. It includes Brazil, Egypt, Ireland, Mexico, New Zealand, and South Africa.8 The Non-Proliferation and Disarmament Initiative includes Australia, Canada, Chile, Germany, Japan, Mexico, the Netherlands, Nigeria, the Philippines, Poland, Turkey, and the UAE.9 "Joint Statement on the Humanitarian Dimension of Nuclear Disarmament, First Session of the Preparatory Committee for the 2015 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons," May 2, 2014, <http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/images/documents/Disarmament-fora/npt/prepcom12/statements/2May_IHL.pdf>, last accessed August 9, 2014.10 D. Brunnstrom, "U. S. examining Marshall Islands' Nuclear Lawsuits, Defends Record", Reuters, April 25, 2014, <http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/25/us-usa-nuclear-marshalls-idUSBREA3O23Y20140425>, last accessed August 9, 2014.11 Statement by H.E. Dr R.M. Marty M. Natalegawa, Minister for Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Indonesia, on behalf of the NAM States Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons at the 2010 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), Permanent Mission of Indonesia to the United Nations, <http://www.indonesiamission-ny.org/menu_kiri/k1_peace_security/pc3_disarmament.php>, last accessed August 9, 2014.12 Author's interview, May 201413 The De-alerting Group was set up in 2007. It includes Chile, Malaysia, Nigeria, New Zealand, and Switzerland.14 Author's interview, April 2014.15 U.S. Statement by Under Secretary Rose Gottemoeller, Third Meeting of the Preparatory Committee for the 2015 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference United Nations, <http://papersmart.unmeetings.org/media2/2927532/us-rev.pdf>, last accessed on August 9, 2014.16 U.S. Statement by Under Secretary Rose Gottemoeller, Third Meeting of the Preparatory Committee for the 2015 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference United Nations, <http://papersmart.unmeetings.org/media2/2927532/us-rev.pdf>, last accessed on August 9, 2014.17 For a detailed analysis of the Budapest Memorandum, its history, negotiation and adoption, and the issue of its status after the outbreak of the Crimean crisis of 2014, please see: Vladimir Orlov, "The Role of Security Assurances to Ukraine and the 1994 Budapest Memorandum: From the 1990s to the Crimea Crisis," Security Index, No. 2 (107), Spring 2014, doi: 10.1080/19934270.2014.985136.18 Statement by H.E. Ambassador Pedro Motta Pinto Coelho, Permanent Representative of Brazil to the Conference on Disarmament, Preparatory Committee for the 2015 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Third session, Cluster 3, May 5, New York, 2014, <http://papersmart.unmeetings.org/media2/2927757/discurso-brasilcluster-iii_distribuicao.pdf>, last accessed August 9, 2014.19 The first international nuclear fuel bank was set up in 2010 in Russia's Angarsk.20 Vladimir Kuchinov spoke on behalf of the head of the Russian delegation, Mikhail Ulyanov. See "Statement by the Head of the Russian Delegation, Director of the Nonproliferation and Arms Control Department in the Russian Foreign Ministry M.I. Ulyanov on the 3rd Cluster of Issues (Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy) at the Third Session of the Preparatory Committee of the 2015 NPT Review Conference," <http://papersmart.unmeetings.org/media2/2927808/statement-by-the-delegation-of-russia-on-cluster-iii-_in-russian_.pdf>, last accessed August 9, 2014.21 "Report of the Preparatory Committee containing recommendations to the Review Conference," May 7, 2014, <http://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/images/documents/Disarmament-fora/npt/prepcom14/documents/draft-recommendations.pdf>, last accessed August 9, 2014.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".