On the Impact of Recent Climate Change on Seasonal Floods—A Case Study from a River Basin in Southern Quebec
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A study of the trends of climatic and hydrologic variables between 1960 and 2004 was completed for the Massawippi River basin in southern Quebec. Analysis of these trends was used to evaluate possible changes in the spring flood hazard in the basin. This basin is flood-prone, especially during the spring months, portions of the basin having been inundated 95 times during the 20th century. Trends were initially analyzed using plots of cumulative percentage departure from the mean, taken from the raw data. Statistical analyses of the data trends were conducted using the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test. The graphical and statistical results indicate trends toward increasing winter and spring temperatures and a change in precipitation type from snow to rain. Decreases in winter snow accumulations are particularly evident. Graphical analyses show some trend toward decreasing maximum and total river discharges, but the trends are not statistically significant. There is no clear evidence that changes in the climatic variables are causing significant changes in river or flood behaviour. Thus, there is no evidence that changing climatic conditions are creating a greater threat from flooding.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".