Predictors of Future Cognitive Decline in Persons with Mild Cognitive Impairment
Bibliographic record
Abstract
This study sought first to identify individual items of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and demographic variables at baseline that predicted the trajectories of cognitive change among patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and second to quantify the risk of cognitive decline in such patients based on their pattern of failure of MMSE items. 187 MCI patients were evaluated serially with the MMSE for up to 3.5 years. Patients who followed a declining cognitive trajectory differed from the stable reference group in their baseline profile of MMSE test performance. Patient age and performance on delayed recall, constructional praxis, attention, and orientation to time and floor predicted future cognitive decline with good accuracy (79.9%) and specificity (86.4%), and moderate sensitivity (67.2%). These results are presented in the form of a simple clinical tool for quantifying risk of future cognitive decline in MCI.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".