Stephen Harper's Rise to Power: Will His “New” Conservative Party Become Canada's “Natural Governing Party” of the Twenty-First Century?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Click to increase image sizeClick to decrease image size Acknowledgments The author would like to thank Professor Robert Jackson, Redlands University, Professor Brooke Jeffrey, Concordia University, and Robert Talbot, University of Ottawa, for their very constructive critiques of early drafts of this review essay. Notes 1. Cited in Wells (2008 Wells, Paul. September 17 2008. "Harper's Canadian Revolution". In Macleans September 17, [Google Scholar]). 2. Pammett and Dornan (2004 Pammett, JonH. and Dornan, Christopher, eds. 2004. The Canadian general election of 2004, Toronto: Dundurn Press. [Google Scholar], 2006 Pammett, JonH. and Dornan, Christopher, eds. 2006. The Canadian General Election of 2006, Toronto: Dundurn Press. [Google Scholar], 2009 Pammett, JonH. and Dornan, Christopher, eds. 2009. The Canadian General Election of 2008, Dundurn Press. [Google Scholar]). 3. Clarkson (2005 Clarkson, Stephen. 2005. The big red machine: How the Liberal Party dominates Canadian politics, Vancouver: University of British Columbia Press. [Google Scholar], 161–79). 4. Dobbin (1991 Dobbin, Murray. 1991. Preston Manning and the Reform Party, Toronto: James Lorimer & Company. [Google Scholar]) analyses the emergence of Manning's Reform movement from the perspective of a western Canadian social democratic; two western journalists, Sydney Sharpe and Don Braid (1992 Sharpe, Sydney and Braid, Don. 1992. Storming Babylon: Preston Manning and the rise of the Reform Party, Toronto: Key Porter. [Google Scholar]), emphasize the sectional, populist, and Christian fundamentalist historical roots of Manning's Reform movement; Dabbs (2000 Dabbs, Frank. 2000. Preston Manning: The roots of Reform, Vancouver: Douglas & McIntrye. [Google Scholar]). 5. Martin (1997 Martin, Lawrence. 1997. The antagonist: Lucien Bouchard and the politics of delusion, Toronto: Penguin Books Canada. [Google Scholar]). 6. Clarkson (2005 Clarkson, Stephen. 2005. The big red machine: How the Liberal Party dominates Canadian politics, Vancouver: University of British Columbia Press. [Google Scholar], 180–205). 7. MacLeod (2009 MacLeod, Harris. August 17 2009. "Federation's future should be next election's ballot-box question". In The Hill Times August 17, [Google Scholar]). 8. Clarkson (2005 Clarkson, Stephen. 2005. The big red machine: How the Liberal Party dominates Canadian politics, Vancouver: University of British Columbia Press. [Google Scholar], 237–62). 9. Raymond (2007). Various contributors address the Mulroney government's evolving social, cultural, economic, foreign and defense policies. Chapters by Ian Peach and Michael Behiels deal with Mulroney's ill-conceived mega-constitutional negotiations undertaken in response to the demands by Québécois nationalist politicians. Both failed attempts did little but stir up regional and political animosity, helping to bring an end to the Mulroney regime and destroying the Progressive Conservative party coalition he had created in 1983–84. 10. Consult Gottfried (2007 Gottfried, Paul Edward. 2007. Conservatism in America: Making sense of the American Right, New York: Palgrave Macmillan. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). A well-known paleo-conservative, Gottfried characterizes the contemporary American neo-conservative movement as a "values conservative" movement. Social, religious, and fiscal conservatives use eternal "values" to create a sense of permanence and superiority over their opponents on the left whom they charge with being moral relativists and therefore unfit to govern. Yet, neo-conservatives eager to hold office have compromised many of their so-called eternal, permanent values by making important compromises with centrist liberals, a process that undermines their professed values and makes a mockery of all conservative principles (Gottfried 2007 Gottfried, Paul Edward. 2007. Conservatism in America: Making sense of the American Right, New York: Palgrave Macmillan. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar], x–xviii). 11. Consult Jeffrey (1999 Jeffrey, Brooke. 1999. Hard right turn: The new face of neo-Conservatism in Canada, Toronto: HarperCollins. [Google Scholar]) and Laycock (2001 Laycock, David. 2001. The new right and democracy in Canada: Understanding Reform and the Canadian Alliance, Toronto: Oxford University Press. [Google Scholar]) for excellent analyses of the emergence of the "right-wing" neo-conservative provincial and federal parties in Canada. 12. All of Manning's biographers acknowledge the role that Manning and his wife Sandra played in persuading Harper to embrace an Evangelical Christian "values" conservatism and to join their church in Calgary: Dobbin (1991 Dobbin, Murray. 1991. Preston Manning and the Reform Party, Toronto: James Lorimer & Company. [Google Scholar]); Dabbs (2000 Dabbs, Frank. 2000. Preston Manning: The roots of Reform, Vancouver: Douglas & McIntrye. [Google Scholar]); Sharpe and Braid (1992 Sharpe, Sydney and Braid, Don. 1992. Storming Babylon: Preston Manning and the rise of the Reform Party, Toronto: Key Porter. [Google Scholar]). 13. Mackay (2006 Mackay, Lloyd. 2006. Stephen Harper: The case for collaborative governance, Toronto: ECW Press. [Google Scholar], 65, 70); Mackay's interpretation of Harper's strong religious convictions is substantiated by another journalist of contemporary religions. Consult Todd (2009 Todd, Douglas. March 17 2009. "Stephen Harper keeps his evangelical faith very private". In The Vancouver Sun March 17, [Google Scholar]). 14. Harper (2003a, 2003b); consult McDonald (2006 McDonald, Marci. October 2006. "Stephen Harper and the theo-cons: The rising clout of Canada's religious right". In The Walrus October, [Google Scholar]) for the "values" conservative context of Harper's speech to the Civitas Society. 15. Turcotte (2009 Turcotte, Marie-Josée. 2009. "Rencontre avec Stephen Harper, premier minister du Canada". In Magazine Prestige 13(Quebec City) Septembre [Google Scholar], 13), author's translation. 16. Jeffrey (1999 Jeffrey, Brooke. 1999. Hard right turn: The new face of neo-Conservatism in Canada, Toronto: HarperCollins. [Google Scholar], 22–23, 376–403). Harper and Flanagan borrowed these tactics and strategies from Paul Weyrich, co-founder of the Heritage Foundation and the Free Congress Foundation, who advised Ronald Reagan on how to transform his Republican Party into a winning machine by carefully targeting single issue constituencies and raising funds through direct mail campaigns. 17. Teles (2008 Teles, Steven M. 2008. The rise of the conservative legal movement: The battle for the control of the law, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar], 135–80). 18. Manning (2002 Manning, Preston. 2002. Think big: My adventures in life and democracy, Toronto: McClelland & Stewart. [Google Scholar]). 19. Brossard (1976, 272). 20. Scott (1992 Scott, Stephen. 1992. "October 1992: Issues relating to Quebec independence". In Remarks prepared for delivery at a public meeting, Holiday Inn, Pointe Claire, Quebec, February 19 Revised March 2. Pamphlet published by the author (available on request) [Google Scholar], 1997 Scott, Stephen. 1997. "October 1992: Issues relating to Quebec independence. Remarks prepared for delivery at a public meeting, Holiday Inn, Pointe Claire, Quebec, February 19". In Staying Canadian, Edited by: Keith, Henderson. 20–57. Montreal: D.C. Books. [Google Scholar]). 21. Nichols (2009 Nichols, Gerry. 2009. Loyal to the core: Stephen Harper, me, and the NCC, Toronto: Freedom Press Canada. [Google Scholar]) provides a very clear picture of Harper's modus operandi. 22. Pammett and Dornan (2004 Pammett, JonH. and Dornan, Christopher, eds. 2004. The Canadian general election of 2004, Toronto: Dundurn Press. [Google Scholar]). 23. For full details of this crucial election, consult Pammett and Dornan (2006 Pammett, JonH. and Dornan, Christopher, eds. 2006. The Canadian General Election of 2006, Toronto: Dundurn Press. [Google Scholar]). 24. Hébert (2009 Hébert, Chantal. May 15 2009. "Will Tory attack ads sting Harper?". In The Star May 15, [Google Scholar]); Castonguay (2009 Castonguay, Alec. juin 29 2009. "Un feuillet controversé attaque le Bloc québécois". In Le Devoir juin 29, [Google Scholar]). 25. Stephen Harper, Policy Chief, Reform Party of Canada. Cited in Dobbin (1991 Dobbin, Murray. 1991. Preston Manning and the Reform Party, Toronto: James Lorimer & Company. [Google Scholar], 116). 26. Another excellent political insider's account, by a former special assistant to Liberal Prime Minister Jean Chrétien, is Kinsella (2007 Kinsella, Warren. 2007. The war room: Political strategies for business, NGOs, and anyone who wants to win, Toronto: Dundurn Press. [Google Scholar]; 2008 Kinsella, Warren. 2008. Pages from the Conservative handbook. A liberal strategist reveals a Conservative's secrets. Literary Review of Canada, 16(1) January [Google Scholar], 9). 27. Neither Johnson nor Flanagan gives enough credit to Preston Manning for the creation of the Reform Party and the role it played on the emergence of right-wing provincial Conservative Parties in Canada and the slow transformation of Red Tory Progressive Conservatism. 28. Flanagan had Harper read Morris (2002 Morris, Dick. 2002. Power plays: Win or lose – how history's great political leaders play the game, Toronto: HarperCollins Canada. [Google Scholar]). Harper has applied successfully five of Morris's six strategies: stand on principle; triangulate; divide and conquer; reform your own party; use a new technology. Harper, at the moment, has failed to mobilize the nation in times of crisis. 29. Morris (2002 Morris, Dick. 2002. Power plays: Win or lose – how history's great political leaders play the game, Toronto: HarperCollins Canada. [Google Scholar], xii). 30. Simpson and Laghi (2008 Simpson, Jeffrey and Laghi, Brian. October 4 2008. "Incremental man". In Globe and Mail October 4, [Google Scholar]); Travers (2009 Travers, James. April 4 2009. "The quiet unravelling of Canadian democracy". In The Star April 4, [Google Scholar]). 31. Flanagan (2009 Flanagan, Tom. 2009. Harper's team, 2nd, Montreal/Kingston: McGill-Queen's University Press. [Google Scholar]). 32. Geddes and Wherry (2008 Geddes, John and Wherry, Aaron. December 11 2008. "Inside a crisis that shook the nation". In Macleans December 11, [Google Scholar]); Coyne (2008 Coyne, Andrew. December 11 2008. "A political fiasco of their own making". In Macleans December 11, [Google Scholar]). 33. Martin (2008 Martin, Lawrence. December 22 2008. "The G-G needs to break her queenly silence and explain herself". In Globe and Mail December 22, [Google Scholar]); Franks (2009 Franks, C.E.S. March 27 2009. "What if she said no?". In Globe and Mail March 27, [Google Scholar]); Murphy (2009 Murphy, Rex. February 6 2009. "Coalition of unintended consequences". In Globe and Mail February 6, [Google Scholar]). 34. The parliamentarians' position is laid out in Peter Russell and Lorne Sossin (2009 Russell, Peter and Sossin, Lorne, eds. 2009. Parliamentary democracy in crisis, Toronto: University of Toronto Press. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]); Potter (2009 Potter, Andrew. July/August 2009. "Unbalanced thoughts". In Literary Review of Canada July/August, [Google Scholar]) makes the case for the "democrats" such as Michael Bliss who demanded an election to prevent the coalition from taking over. Bliss (2008 Bliss, Michael. December 1 2008. "Unstable coalition is a powderkeg under Canada". In National Post December 1, [Google Scholar]). 35. Flanagan (2009 Flanagan, Tom. 2009. Harper's team, 2nd, Montreal/Kingston: McGill-Queen's University Press. [Google Scholar]). 36. Hutchinson (2009 Hutchinson, Don. 2009. Canadian evangelical voting trends by region, 1996–2008. Church and Faith Trends, 3(2): 1–25. [Google Scholar]), published by the Evangelical Fellowship of Canada. Between 1996 and 2008 the percentage of evangelicals voting for the Reform/Conservative party rose from 33 to 71 percent Hutchinson (2009 Hutchinson, Don. 2009. Canadian evangelical voting trends by region, 1996–2008. Church and Faith Trends, 3(2): 1–25. [Google Scholar], 9). 37. Delacourt (2009 Delacourt, Susan. July 8 2009. "Pride Week, MP under fire after Tory outcry". In The Toronto Star July 8, [Google Scholar]). 38. Chase (2009 Chase, Steve. July 8 2009. "Gay-pride grants trips up Tories". In The Globe and Mail July 8, [Google Scholar]); Ditchburn (2009 Ditchburn, Jennifer. July 9 2009. "Gay-pride organizer defends Harper government". In The Globe and Mail July 9, [Google Scholar]). 39. Another PC Party insider's account is provided by a former Chief of Staff to PM Mulroney and current Senator. Segal (2007 Segal, Hugh. 2007. The long road back: Creating Canada's new Conservative Party, 1993–2007, Toronto: HarperCollins Canada. [Google Scholar]). 40. Wells (2009 Wells, Paul. April 21 2009. "The feud". In Macleans April 21, [Google Scholar]). 41. Commission of Inquiry into Certain Allegations Respecting Business and Financial Dealings Between Karlheinz Schreiber and the Right Honourable Brian Mulroney (http://www. oliphantcommission.ca/english/index.php). 42. Cobb (2009 Cobb, Chris. April 4 2009. "You win some, you lose some". In The Ottawa Citizen April 4, [Google Scholar]). He analyzes critically Harper's three years as Prime Minister. 43. Consult Dunn (2008 Dunn, Christopher. 2008. "Canada's "open federalism": Past, present, and future". In The federal nation: Perspectives on American federalism, Edited by: Morgan, Iwan W. and Davies, Philip J. 39–60. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. [Crossref] , [Google Scholar]). 44. Wells (2008 Wells, Paul. September 17 2008. "Harper's Canadian Revolution". In Macleans September 17, [Google Scholar]); Macleod (2009 MacLeod, Harris. August 17 2009. "Federation's future should be next election's ballot-box question". In The Hill Times August 17, [Google Scholar]). 45. Behiels (2008 Behiels, Michael. December 3 2008. "Harper can't win a war with Quebec". In Ottawa Citizen December 3, [Google Scholar]). 46. For example, Richard Johnson's fascinating "Polarized Pluralism in the Canadian Party System: Presidential Address" (2008). 47. Brennan (2009 Brennan, Richard J. August 28 2009. "Harper dubbed "Patronage King,". In The Star August 28, [Google Scholar]); Naumetz (2009 Naumetz, Tim. August 30 2009. "Harper Cabinet unleashes flood of patronage". In Canadian Press August 30, [Google Scholar]). 48. Riley (2009 Riley, Susan. October 16 2009. "Conservative longings". In The Ottawa Citizen October 16, [Google Scholar]). 49. Gray (2009 Gray, John. 2009. "Government: In search of the real Harper". In Canadian Business Magazine [Google Scholar]); Coyne (2009 Coyne, Andrew. January 29 2009. "The end of Canadian conservatism". In Macleans January 29, [Google Scholar]); The Economist (2009 The Economist. January 29 2009. "Editorial: Joining the stimulating party". In The Economist January 29, [Google Scholar]).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".