Analyse dynamique de la convergence des comportements de demande de monnaie en Europe*
Bibliographic record
Abstract
L’objet de cet article est l’étude de la convergence structurelle des comportements de demande de monnaie dans six pays européens (Allemagne réunifiée, Espagne, France, Italie, Pays-Bas, Royaume-Uni) avant la mise en place de l’euro en 1999. Nous effectuons une analyse dynamique des changements structurels qui affectent les coefficients (élasticités ou semi-élasticités) des fonctions de demandes de monnaie nationales sur la période 1982-1997. Si des comportements hétérogènes sont observés, il peut en résulter une hausse de la dispersion des taux d’inflation des futurs pays participants, ce qui peut poser des problèmes en termes de choix de stratégie monétaire par la BCE. D’une manière générale, un processus de convergence semble à l’oeuvre mais il n’est pas achevé, l’homogénéité ayant été observée dans un seul cas (pourM2 aux Pays-Bas).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".