Testing the linearity of the response to combined greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcing
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Detection and attribution studies of the temperature response to anthropogenic greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosol have relied on the assumption that the responses to each of these forcings add linearly. Using surface temperature from three ensembles of integrations of the second Hadley Centre coupled model (HadCM2) forced with observed changes in greenhouse gases alone, the direct effect of sulfate aerosol alone, and combined changes in greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol, we test this assumption. We examine the residual, defined as the response to the combined forcings, minus the sum of the responses to the individual forcings, and compare its distribution with that of control variability. Considering both global mean changes and changes at each grid point, we find no evidence that the responses to greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosol combine nonlinearly in HadCM2.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".