Delineation of Contamination Spread Potential over Extended Time Modeling
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The delineation of contamination spread is a critical task in responding to an emergency involving water quality. Conventional modeling techniques can be used to trace the movement of a contaminant through a distribution network. However, this trace is valid only for the demand load specified in the extended time simulation. If the actual demand loads across the network change as a result of, for example, a public health notice, then the actual spread of the contaminant may be significantly different — making containment much more difficult. The connectivity matrix approach overcomes this problem of limited real-time knowledge of demands, yielding a delineation of the spread potential consistent with the cautionary principle of starting with the worst possible scenario. One remaining challenge to the use of the connectivity modelis that the matrix is defined for a single point in time, whereas contamination spread is time dependent. The current paper presents two alternative methods to address changes in the connectivity over time. The first of these methods relies on the convolution of connectivity matrices over time, while the second approach relies on a decay mechanism to transition from one connectivity matrix to the next.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".