Numerical model study on ice impact on Lake Superior outflow limit
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Improved regulation of the wintertime flow from Lake Superior is needed to improve the balance of water levels of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan–Huron to decrease the frequency of extreme levels without unduly affecting Lake Superior interest. The wintertime outflow limit is set as 2410 m3/s by Lake Superior Regulation Plan 1977-A as a result of ice jam flooding during the 1916–1917 winter. This paper presents a numerical model study on the ice conditions in the St. Marys River to assess the maximum allowable Lake Superior wintertime outflow. Freeze-up, frazil transport and accumulation, and breakup were simulated with a thermal-ice dynamic model. The highest potential for flooding exists during ice breakup and simulations were run to determine a safe discharge limit for the breakup period. Simulations indicated the winter flow limit may be increased to 2690 m3/s if flow regulation is managed with care to prevent premature ice cover breakup.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".