Spatial gradients in Clovis-age radiocarbon dates across North America suggest rapid colonization from the north
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
A key issue in the debate over the initial colonization of North America is whether there are spatial gradients in the distribution of the Clovis-age occupations across the continent. Such gradients would help indicate the timing, speed, and direction of the colonization process. In their recent reanalysis of Clovis-age radiocarbon dates, Waters and Stafford [Waters MR, Stafford TW, Jr (2007) Science 315:1122-1126] report that they find no spatial patterning. Furthermore, they suggest that the brevity of the Clovis time period indicates that the Clovis culture represents the diffusion of a technology across a preexisting pre-Clovis population rather than a population expansion. In this article, we focus on two questions. First, we ask whether there is spatial patterning to the timing of Clovis-age occupations and, second, whether the observed speed of colonization is consistent with demic processes. With time-delayed wave-of-advance models, we use the radiocarbon record to test several alternative colonization hypotheses. We find clear spatial gradients in the distribution of these dates across North America, which indicate a rapid wave of advance originating from the north. We show that the high velocity of this wave can be accounted for by a combination of demographic processes, habitat preferences, and mobility biases across complex landscapes. Our results suggest that the Clovis-age archaeological record represents a rapid demic colonization event originating from the north.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it