Analysis and Modeling of Urban Land Cover Change in Setúbal and Sesimbra, Portugal
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The expansion of cities entails the abandonment of forest and agricultural lands, and these lands’ conversion into urban areas, which results in substantial impacts on ecosystems. Monitoring these changes and planning urban development can be successfully achieved using multitemporal remotely sensed data, spatial metrics, and modeling. In this paper, urban land use change analysis and modeling was carried out for the Concelhos of Setúbal and Sesimbra in Portugal. An existing land cover map for the year 1990, together with two derived land cover maps from multispectral satellite images for the years 2000 and 2006, were utilized using an object-oriented classification approach. Classification accuracy assessment revealed satisfactory results that fulfilled minimum standard accuracy levels. Urban land use dynamics, in terms of both patterns and quantities, were studied using selected landscape metrics and the Shannon Entropy index. Results show that urban areas increased by 91.11% between 1990 and 2006. In contrast, the change was only 6.34% between 2000 and 2006. The entropy value was 0.73 for both municipalities in 1990, indicating a high rate of urban sprawl in the area. In 2006, this value, for both Sesimbra and Setúbal, reached almost 0.90. This is demonstrative of a tendency toward intensive urban sprawl. Urban land use change for the year 2020 was modeled using a Cellular Automata based approach. The predictive power of the model was successfully validated using Kappa variations. Projected land cover changes show a growing tendency in urban land use, which might threaten areas that are currently reserved for natural parks and agricultural lands.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".