Regions With Higher Medicare Part D Spending Show Better Drug Adherence, But Not Lower Medicare Costs For Two Diseases
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A quarter-century of research on geographic variation in Medicare costs has failed to find any positive association between high spending and better health outcomes. We conducted this study using a 5 percent random sample of Medicare beneficiaries with diabetes or heart failure in 2006 and 2007 to see whether there was any correlation between geographic variation in Part D spending and good medication-taking behavior-and, if so, whether that correlation resulted in reduced Medicare Parts A and B spending on diabetes and heart failure treatments. We found that beneficiaries residing in areas characterized by higher adjusted drug spending had significantly more "therapy days"-days with recommended medications on hand-than did beneficiaries in lower-spending areas. However, we did not find that this factor translated into short-term savings in Medicare treatment costs for these two diseases. This result might not be surprising, since returns from medication adherence can take years to manifest. At the same time, discovering which regional factors are responsible for differences in drug spending and medication practices should be a high priority. If the observed differences are related to poor physician communication or lack of good care coordination, then appropriately designed policy tools-including accountable care organizations, medical homes, and provider quality reporting initiatives-might help address them.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.008 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".