Pathway‐level risk analysis: the net present value of an invasive species policy in the US
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Invasive species policies are often directed at pathways of introduction, yet few analyses have examined risk at the pathway level. We synthesize the best available economic and ecological information surrounding International Standards for Phytosanitary Measures No 15 (ISPM15), a pathway‐level international phytosanitary policy for treatment of wood packaging material. We highlight temporal factors for calculation of net benefits, emphasizing that while we cannot stop invasions, even delaying new arrivals results in substantial economic benefits. We show that policy implementation, although costly and yielding only moderate protection, can generate >US$11 billion in cumulative net benefits by 2050, averting the introduction of more pests than currently exist in the US. We also discuss the relative importance of different sources of scientific uncertainty and identify the most crucial data needs. This is the first pathway‐level economic risk analysis assessing the current scientific evidence for the net benefits of a phytosanitary policy.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".