Stable‐hydrogen isotope measures of natal dispersal reflect observed population declines in a threatened migratory songbird
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Aim Measuring dispersal is crucial for estimating demographic rates that inform conservation plans for rare and threatened species. We evaluated natal dispersal patterns in Bicknell's thrush ( C atharus bicknelli ) across most of the breeding range using a 10‐year data set of stable‐hydrogen isotope ratios in feathers (δ 2 H F ) grown on the natal area and sampled 1 year later at the first breeding site. Location North‐eastern United States and south‐eastern Canada. Methods We used δ 2 H F values of adult thrushes sampled at 25 breeding sites as prior information for assigning first‐time breeders to their natal site. We calculated the minimum distance birds moved from their natal to first breeding site and fit these data to three statistical distributions for characterizing the importance of long‐distance dispersal: the exponential, Weibull and half‐Cauchy. Finally, we assessed differences in the probability of dispersal across the breeding range and through time to understand spatio‐temporal variation in demographic connectivity. Results The δ 2 H F values of first‐time breeders were lower compared with those of adults, a difference that was greater at the southern compared with northern breeding range extreme. Assignment tests accounting for age differences in δ 2 H F suggested that most birds dispersed < 200 km from their natal area and within the centre of the breeding range, whereas comparatively few individuals dispersed up to 700 km. A Weibull distribution provided the best fit to these data. Two of three corrections for age differences in δ 2 H F indicated that natal dispersal probability declined by 30–38% from 1996 to 2005. Main conclusions Our findings suggest that estimating natal dispersal with δ 2 H F measurements may contribute to understanding the resilience of geographically isolated Bicknell's thrush populations. Declining natal dispersal may be symptomatic of observed population declines and could compound this trend by limiting demographic exchange between habitat patches predicted to be increasingly isolated by natural and anthropogenic habitat changes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".