De la peur de la surpopulation à celle de la sous-population : réflexions sur la dimension apocalyptique dans la pensée démographique
Bibliographic record
Abstract
La peur de la surpopulation et de la sous-population n’est pas une problématique nouvelle. Régulièrement, elle resurgit dans les discours démographiques, écologistes, etc. Cet article présente une brève rétrospective d’études surtout anglo-saxonnes mettant en évidence la dimension apocalyptique dans la pensée démographique. Il met en relief les arguments utilisés à travers la présentation d’un certain nombre de discours qui se fondent sur des concepts et paramètres démographiques et leurs répercussions sur l’avenir de l’humanité, des régions ou des États. Il souligne notamment, la force narrative des représentations apocalyptiques, bien que laïcisées, à travers l’habillement des discours par des arguments de type scientifique et des données quantitatives qui fondent les scénarios catastrophiques dont l’occurrence est toujours repoussée.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.029 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".