Improvements in Radiographic Progression-Free Survival Stratified by <i>ERG</i> Gene Status in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer Patients Treated with Abiraterone Acetate
Bibliographic record
Abstract
PURPOSE: Gene fusions leading to androgen receptor-modulated ERG overexpression occur in up to 70% of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancers (mCRPC). We assessed the association between ERG rearrangement status and clinical benefit from abiraterone acetate. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: COU-AA-302 is a phase III trial comparing abiraterone acetate and prednisone versus prednisone in chemotherapy-naïve mCRPC. ERG status was evaluated by FISH on archival tumors. End points included radiographic progression-free survival (rPFS), time to PSA progression (TTPP), rate of ≥50% PSA decline from baseline, and overall survival (OS). Cox regression was used to evaluate association with time-to-event measures and Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel for PSA response. RESULTS: ERG status was defined for 348 of 1,088 intention-to-treat patients. ERG was rearranged in 121 of 348 patients with confirmed ERG status (35%). Cancers with an ERG fusion secondary to deletion of 21q22 and increased copy number of fusion sequences (class 2+ Edel) had a greater improvement in rPFS after abiraterone acetate and prednisone [22 vs. 5.4 months; HR (95% confidence interval, CI), 0.31 (0.15-0.68); P = 0.0033] than cancers with no ERG fusion [16.7 vs. 8.3 months; 0.53 (0.38-0.74); P = 0.0002] or other classes of ERG rearrangement. There was also greater benefit in this subgroup for TTPP. CONCLUSIONS: Both ERG-rearranged and wild-type cancers had a significant improvement in rPFS with abiraterone acetate and prednisone in the COU-AA-302 trial. However, our data suggest that 2+ Edel cancers, accounting for 15% of all mCRPC patients and previously associated with a worse outcome, derived the greatest benefit.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.004 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".