Algorithm Runtime Prediction: Methods & Evaluation
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Perhaps surprisingly, it is possible to predict how long an algorithm will take to run on a previously unseen input, using machine learning techniques to build a model of the algorithm's runtime as a function of problem-specific instance features. Such models have important applications to algorithm analysis, portfolio-based algorithm selection, and the automatic configuration of parameterized algorithms. Over the past decade, a wide variety of techniques have been studied for building such models. Here, we describe extensions and improvements of existing models, new families of models, and -- perhaps most importantly -- a much more thorough treatment of algorithm parameters as model inputs. We also comprehensively describe new and existing features for predicting algorithm runtime for propositional satisfiability (SAT), travelling salesperson (TSP) and mixed integer programming (MIP) problems. We evaluate these innovations through the largest empirical analysis of its kind, comparing to a wide range of runtime modelling techniques from the literature. Our experiments consider 11 algorithms and 35 instance distributions; they also span a very wide range of SAT, MIP, and TSP instances, with the least structured having been generated uniformly at random and the most structured having emerged from real industrial applications. Overall, we demonstrate that our new models yield substantially better runtime predictions than previous approaches in terms of their generalization to new problem instances, to new algorithms from a parameterized space, and to both simultaneously.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it