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Record W2046003845 · doi:10.1093/mnras/stt2127

Will comet 209P/LINEAR generate the next meteor storm?

2013· article· en· W2046003845 on OpenAlexafffund
Quanzhi Ye, Paul Wiegert

Bibliographic record

VenueMonthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society · 2013
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldPhysics and Astronomy
TopicAstro and Planetary Science
Canadian institutionsWestern University
FundersNatural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of CanadaScience Mission DirectorateNational Aeronautics and Space Administration
KeywordsCometPhysicsMeteor (satellite)MeteoroidComet tailComet dustAstrophysicsAstronomySolar SystemInterplanetary dust cloudPlasmaSolar windNuclear physics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Previous studies have suggested that comet 209P/LINEAR may produce strong meteor activity on Earth on 2014 May 24; however, exact timing and activity level is difficult to estimate due to the limited physical observations of the comet. Here, we reanalyse the optical observations of 209P/LINEAR obtained during its 2009 apparition. We find that the comet is relatively depleted in dust production, with Afρ at 1 cm level within eight months around its perihelion. This feature suggested that this comet may be currently transitioning from a typical comet to a dormant comet. Syndyne simulation shows that the optical cometary tail is dominated by larger particles with β ∼ 0.003. Numerical simulations of the cometary dust trails confirm the arrival of particles on 2014 May 24 from some of the 1798–1979 trails. The nominal radiant is at RA 122° ± 1°, Dec. 79° ± 1° (J2000) in the constellation of Camelopardalis. Given that the comet is found to be depleted in dust production, we concluded that a meteor storm (ZHR ≥ 1000) may be unlikely. However, our simulation also shows that the size distribution of the arrived particles is skewed strongly to larger particles. Coupling with the result of syndyne simulation, we think that the event, if detectable, may be dominated by bright meteors. We encourage observers to monitor the expected meteor event as it will provide us with rare direct information on the dynamical history of 209P/LINEAR which is otherwise irretrievably lost.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.038
Threshold uncertainty score1.000

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.012
GPT teacher head0.196
Teacher spread0.184 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations18
Published2013
Admission routes2
Has abstractyes

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