Physical Activity and Influenza-Coded Outpatient Visits, a Population-Based Cohort Study
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Although the benefits of physical activity in preventing chronic medical conditions are well established, its impacts on infectious diseases, and seasonal influenza in particular, are less clearly defined. We examined the association between physical activity and influenza-coded outpatient visits, as a proxy for influenza infection. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted a cohort study of Ontario respondents to Statistics Canada's population health surveys over 12 influenza seasons. We assessed physical activity levels through survey responses, and influenza-coded physician office and emergency department visits through physician billing claims. We used logistic regression to estimate the risk of influenza-coded outpatient visits during influenza seasons. The cohort comprised 114,364 survey respondents who contributed 357,466 person-influenza seasons of observation. Compared to inactive individuals, moderately active (OR 0.83; 95% CI 0.74-0.94) and active (OR 0.87; 95% CI 0.77-0.98) individuals were less likely to experience an influenza-coded visit. Stratifying by age, the protective effect of physical activity remained significant for individuals <65 years (active OR 0.86; 95% CI 0.75-0.98, moderately active: OR 0.85; 95% CI 0.74-0.97) but not for individuals ≥ 65 years. The main limitations of this study were the use of influenza-coded outpatient visits rather than laboratory-confirmed influenza as the outcome measure, the reliance on self-report for assessing physical activity and various covariates, and the observational study design. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Moderate to high amounts of physical activity may be associated with reduced risk of influenza for individuals <65 years. Future research should use laboratory-confirmed influenza outcomes to confirm the association between physical activity and influenza.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it