Quantifying invasion pathways: fish introductions from the aquarium trade
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Introduced species can cause economic and environmental harm. Researchers have developed risk assessment models for exotic species based on biological characteristics. However, few have quantified propagule pressure despite its relevance for establishment. Both are needed to identify invasion risk. We focused on fishes introduced via the aquarium trade, because this pathway transports thousands of species throughout the world. We developed an approach to estimate propagule pressure by (i) identifying and quantifying aquarium fishes sold, (ii) determining fish owner behavior and disposal practices, and (iii) quantifying uncertainty. We used the St. Lawrence Seaway as our model system. Only one nonestablished species ( Tanichthys albonubes , 117 per year) had the propagule pressure and environmental tolerances to likely invade this region. However, overall, more than 10 000 fishes were released annually from Montréal (Quebec, Canada) alone. The implication of the observed propagule pressures is that the aquarium trade should be a very important pathway in other warmer habitats and should be explicitly assessed. Knowledge of the numbers introduced of each species will be useful for population models to estimate the probability of establishment.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".