Analysis of Interval-Censored Data from Clustered Multistate Processes: Application to Joint Damage in Psoriatic Arthritis
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Summary A conditionally Markov multiplicative intensity model is described for the analysis of clustered progressive multistate processes under intermittent observation. The model is motivated by a long-term prospective study of patients with psoriatic arthritis with the aim of characterizing progression of joint damage via an irreversible four-state model. The model accommodates heterogeneity in transition rates between different individuals and correlation in transition rates within patients. To do this we introduce subject-specific multivariate random effects in which each component acts multiplicatively on a specific transition intensity. Through the association between the components of the random effect, correlations in transition intensities are accommodated. A Monte Carlo EM algorithm is developed for estimation, which features closed form expressions for estimators at each M-step.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it