The impact of varying atmospheric forcing on the thickness of arctic multi‐year sea ice
Bibliographic record
Abstract
A 1‐D thermodynamic sea ice model, forced with North Pole Drift Station observations from 1954–91, is used to study the effect of changing atmospheric forcing on multi‐year Arctic sea ice. From 1954–70, most seasons show positive trends in calculated sea ice thickness over much of the Arctic. A dip in calculated ice thickness takes place between 1971–77 over most of the Arctic. Following the North Pacific regime shift in 1976–1977, the period 1978–91 reveals large negative trends in calculated sea ice thickness in all seasons. The results indicate that an important part of the variability and trends in Arctic sea ice thickness is thermodynamically‐driven. Of the total variance in multi‐year sea ice thickness, 10 to 20% is explained by variations in the Arctic Oscillation and Pacific North American patterns. The multi‐year ice thickness response to a positive wintertime Arctic Oscillation anomaly occurs the following summer and persists for more than a year.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".