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Record W2048080363 · doi:10.4284/0038-4038-78.3.e1

Persistence in U.S. State Unemployment Rates: Errata and Extensions

2012· article· en· W2048080363 on OpenAlexaff
Peter S. Sephton

Bibliographic record

VenueSouthern Economic Journal · 2012
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicMonetary Policy and Economic Impact
Canadian institutionsQueen's University
Fundersnot available
KeywordsUnemploymentUnit rootHysteresisOddsEconomicsPersistence (discontinuity)EconometricsMean reversionState (computer science)Unemployment rateSeries (stratigraphy)Path (computing)MathematicsStatisticsMacroeconomicsComputer scienceGeologyPhysicsLogistic regression

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Using panel unit root tests allowing for breaking deterministics, found that many U.S. state unemployment rates were stationary, a result at odds with the traditional view that unemployment rates are path‐dependent and subject to shocks that have permanent effects. extended the analysis to directly examine whether the series were fractionally integrated and reported that models with two breaks‐in‐mean do suggest many state unemployment rates were mean‐reverting. The purpose of this note is to correct an error contained in , which when modified, indicates that state unemployment rates were non‐stationary processes well‐characterized by hysteresis.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
Consensus categoriesInsufficient payload (model declined to judge)
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.216
Threshold uncertainty score0.999

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.001
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.003

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.112
GPT teacher head0.246
Teacher spread0.134 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; both teacher heads agree on what is shown here.

Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations3
Published2012
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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