Structural imaging biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease: predicting disease progression
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Optimized magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease (AD) may allow earlier detection and refined prediction of the disease. In addition, they could serve as valuable tools when designing therapeutic studies of individuals at risk of AD. In this study, we combine (1) a novel method for grading medial temporal lobe structures with (2) robust cortical thickness measurements to predict AD among subjects with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) from a single T1-weighted MRI scan. Using AD and cognitively normal individuals, we generate a set of features potentially discriminating between MCI subjects who convert to AD and those who remain stable over a period of 3 years. Using mutual information-based feature selection, we identify 5 key features optimizing the classification of MCI converters. These features are the left and right hippocampi gradings and cortical thicknesses of the left precuneus, left superior temporal sulcus, and right anterior part of the parahippocampal gyrus. We show that these features are highly stable in cross-validation and enable a prediction accuracy of 72% using a simple linear discriminant classifier, the highest prediction accuracy obtained on the baseline Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative first phase cohort to date. The proposed structural features are consistent with Braak stages and previously reported atrophic patterns in AD and are easy to transfer to new cohorts and to clinical practice.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".