Earnings Management in IPO Lockup and Insider Trading: Evidence from Taiwan
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper examines the hypothesis that the timing of lockup expiration is crucial to earnings management (EM) behavior in the period after an initial public offering (IPO). Taiwan's unique two-stage lockup regulations make the Taiwanese sample an excellent candidate for examining this hypothesis. Three main results are reached. First, we find positive discretionary accruals (DAs) from the IPO quarter to the quarter after the expiration of the first-stage lockup. The DA in the quarter of the second-stage lockup expiration is significantly positive. The evidence shows that the lockup provision is key in the findings of significant EM in the IPO year and the following year. We also find a positive association between DAs in first-stage lockups and subsequent insider selling activity, indicating that insiders' selling after lockup expiration accounts for EM in the lockup period. Third, the extent of EM in first-stage lockup is negatively related to that around the IPO, consistent with the reversal nature of DAs.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it