Decreased Overall Virulence in Coinfected Hosts Leads to the Persistence of Virulent Parasites
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Multiple infections are known to affect virulence evolution. Some studies even show that coinfections may decrease the overall virulence (the disease-induced mortality of a coinfected host). Yet, epidemiological studies tend to overlook the overall virulence, and within-host models tend to ignore epidemiological processes. Here, I develop an epidemiological model where overall virulence is an explicit function of the virulence of the coinfecting strains. I show that in most cases, a unique strain is evolutionarily stable (in accordance with the model I use here). However, when the overall virulence is lower than the virulence of each of the coinfecting strains (i.e., when coinfections decrease virulence), the evolutionary equilibrium may be invaded by highly virulent strains, leading to the coexistence of two strains on an evolutionary timescale. This model has theoretical and experimental implications: it underlines the importance of overall virulence and of epidemiological feedbacks on virulence evolution.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".