The dynamics of forest tent caterpillar outbreaks across east‐central Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
An analysis of forest tent caterpillar Malacosoma disstria defoliation records from Ontario and Quebec over the period 1938–2002 indicates that outbreaks recur periodically and somewhat synchronously among regions of the two provinces. Cluster analysis revealed that the most strongly periodic, large‐scale, synchronized fluctuations occurred within three regions: northwestern Ontario, eastern Ontario/western Quebec and southeastern Quebec. Defoliation in the vast surrounding hinterlands tended to be infrequent and sporadic, loosely tracking defoliation in the core outbreak regions. One small cluster in northeastern Ontario stood out as anomalous, as a result of an increasing trend in the duration of periodic defoliation episodes, marked by an unprecedented double‐wave of defoliation that persisted from 1992 to 1999. This is the precise area where, in the early 2000s, trembling aspen Populus tremuloides stems were mapped as being in a state of decline of unprecedented severity and extent. Our results suggest forest tent caterpillar has the potential to cause significant impacts on forest health and, hence, carbon budgets in east‐central Canada and that the forest tent caterpillar deserves more attention as a model system of forest insect disturbance ecology.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".