An exotic insect and pathogen disease complex reduces aboveground tree biomass in temperate forests of eastern North America
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Forests store a large portion of global carbon in tree and soil biomass. However, our understanding of the factors that may reduce rates of forest carbon accumulation is incomplete. This study examines the impact of an exotic insect and fungal pathogen disease on aboveground tree biomass in forests of eastern North America. We determine how beech bark disease (BBD) — a pervasive but nonextirpating disease — influences the growth and survival of its host tree, Fagus grandifolia Ehrh., and the effects of changes in the demography of this late-successional dominant tree species on total stand-level aboveground tree biomass. Our analyses use US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data from eastern states located along a gradient in the time since introduction of BBD. In Maine, where BBD has been present for >50 years, we observed reduced growth and survival of the host tree and reduced overall stand-level aboveground tree biomass compared with states where BBD arrived more recently. Additionally, there is a negative relationship between host tree abundance and overall stand-level aboveground tree biomass. Where beech is most abundant, BBD results in substantial declines in aboveground tree biomass (e.g., 11% in Maine); where beech is less abundant, we expect more modest declines (1%–4%).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".