Fault Detection and Diagnosis of Multiple-Model Systems With Mismodeled Transition Probabilities
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This paper proposes an improved interacting multiple-model (I <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> MM) algorithm with inaccurate transition probabilities (TPs) for fault detection and diagnosis (FDD). We first study the influence of inaccurate TPs by inspecting the expectation and covariances of residual error vectors in the traditional IMM method. It shows that Kalman filters can be retained as subfilters in the presence of mismodeled TPs, and the effect of TPs can be removed naturally if all of the probabilities of true modes are equal to one. In view of this, a modification operator is proposed to make the real mode probabilities heuristically approach one. The modification degree is governed by a parameter determined by the online measurements. When the modification parameter calculated is identical to one, the I <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> MM method reduces to the conventional IMM algorithm. An experiment designed through a ball-and-tube testbed is presented to demonstrate that the I <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">2</sup> MM-based FDD method can provide more reliable FDD results and reduce the possibility of false alarms.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it