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Record W2052824559 · doi:10.4043/25497-ms

Forecasting Ice and Weather Conditions for Field Operations in Alaska

2015· article· en· W2052824559 on OpenAlexaboutno aff
Robert Raye

Bibliographic record

VenueOTC Arctic Technology Conference · 2015
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEnvironmental Science
TopicMethane Hydrates and Related Phenomena
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsArcticSea iceMeteorologySubmarine pipelineWeather forecastingScheduleEnvironmental scienceBeaconComputer scienceOceanographyGeographyGeologyTelecommunications

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Accurate and reliable surveillance and forecasting of environmental conditions are necessary for safe and efficient oil and gas activities both onshore and offshore. In the Arctic, environmental challenges include seasonal sea ice and low temperature extremes. In the absence of pooled forecasting services and operational-grade forecasting capacity by public weather services, Shell has developed and operates an in-house, Anchorage based forecasting program designed specifically for the demands and requirements of Shell's Alaska operations. The Shell Ice and Weather Advisory Center (SIWAC), now in its eighth year of operation, has evolved to be the most comprehensive and focused ice and weather forecast operation covering the offshore and coastal areas from the Gulf of Alaska to the Canadian Beaufort Sea. SIWAC consists of a team of fulltime Arctic-experienced forecasters working in a 24/7 rotation schedule and are fully integrated into the operations process, directly engaging with field personnel and decision makers. Development of differentiating forecast products and services depends not only on an expert team, but also a robust observation program consisting of contracted and public satellite imagery, a network of Metocean buoys, satellite-tracked ice movement beacons, and steady stream of field observations from specially trained personnel aboard marine and aviation assets. In 2011, Shell entered into a Memorandum of Agreement with the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration that described a framework for collaboration, communication, and information sharing between the Agency and Industry. This agreement leverages the strengths of each party and opens Shell's Arctic ice and Metocean data for use within NOAA forecasting offices, numerical model ingestion, climate research, and general public consumers.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.124
Threshold uncertainty score0.246

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.000
Science and technology studies0.0010.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.035
GPT teacher head0.258
Teacher spread0.224 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2015
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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