The Next Frontier is Anticipation: Thinking Ahead About Conflict To Help Clients Find Constructive Ways to Engage Issues in Advance
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Conflict resolution spends much time and energy contemplating best practices for solving problems after they arise. This article argues that specialists in conflict resolution, and their clients, would be well-served by focusing on previewing problems in their infancy. Like preventive medicine, the field of conflict resolution can start to study underlying causes, predictable crises, and foreseeable needs. What tools can we bring to bear to anticipate conflict? What advice would we give our clients? How can the field of conflict resolution move to conflict anticipation?
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.019 | 0.024 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.013 | 0.023 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.013 | 0.024 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.013 |
| Research integrity | 0.008 | 0.015 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.010 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".