Modelling Interactions between Forest Pest Invasions and Human Decisions Regarding Firewood Transport Restrictions
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The invasion of nonnative, wood-boring insects such as the Asian longhorned beetle (A. glabripennis) and the emerald ash borer (A. planipennis) is a serious ecological and economic threat to Canadian deciduous and mixed-wood forests. Humans act as a major vector for the spread of these pests via firewood transport, although existing models do not explicitly capture human decision-making regarding firewood transport. In this paper we present a two-patch coupled human-environment system model that includes social influence and long-distance firewood transport and examines potential strategies for mitigating pest spread. We found that increasing concern regarding infestations (f) significantly reduced infestation. Additionally it resulted in multiple thresholds at which the intensity of infestation in a patch was decreased. It was also found that a decrease in the cost of firewood purchased in the area where it is supposed to be burned (Cl) resulted in an increased proportion of local-firewood strategists, and a 67% decrease in Cl from $6.75 to $4.50 was sufficient to eliminate crosspatch infestation. These effects are synergistic: increasing concern through awareness and education campaigns acts together with reduced firewood costs, thereby reducing the required threshold of both awareness and economic incentives. Our results indicate that the best management strategy includes a combination of public education paired with firewood subsidization.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".