Classification of rare missense substitutions, using risk surfaces, with genetic- and molecular-epidemiology applications
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Many individually rare missense substitutions are encountered during deep resequencing of candidate susceptibility genes and clinical mutation screening of known susceptibility genes. BRCA1 and BRCA2 are among the most resequenced of all genes, and clinical mutation screening of these genes provides an extensive data set for analysis of rare missense substitutions. Align-GVGD is a mathematically simple missense substitution analysis algorithm, based on the Grantham difference, which has already contributed to classification of missense substitutions in BRCA1, BRCA2, and CHEK2. However, the distribution of genetic risk as a function of Align-GVGD's output variables Grantham variation (GV) and Grantham deviation (GD) has not been well characterized. Here, we used data from the Myriad Genetic Laboratories database of nearly 70,000 full-sequence tests plus two risk estimates, one approximating the odds ratio and the other reflecting strength of selection, to display the distribution of risk in the GV-GD plane as a series of surfaces. We abstracted contours from the surfaces and used the contours to define a sequence of missense substitution grades ordered from greatest risk to least risk. The grades were validated internally using a third, personal and family history-based, measure of risk. The Align-GVGD grades defined here are applicable to both the genetic epidemiology problem of classifying rare missense substitutions observed in known susceptibility genes and the molecular epidemiology problem of analyzing rare missense substitutions observed during case-control mutation screening studies of candidate susceptibility genes.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.018 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.007 | 0.003 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".