Shrinkage-to-Tapering Estimation of Large Covariance Matrices
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper, we introduce a shrinkage-to-tapering approach for estimating large covariance matrices when the number of samples is substantially fewer than the number of variables (i.e., <i xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">n</i> , <i xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">p</i> →∞ and <sup xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">p</sup> / <sub xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">n</sub> →∞). The proposed estimator improves upon both shrinkage and tapering estimators by shrinking the sample covariance matrix to its tapered version. We first show that, under both normalized Frobenius and spectral risks, the minimum mean-squared error (MMSE) shrinkage-to-identity estimator is inconsistent and outperformed by a minimax tapering estimator for a class of high-dimensional and diagonally dominant covariance matrices. Motivated by this observation, we propose a shrinkage-to-tapering oracle (STO) estimator for efficient estimation of general, large covariance matrices. A closed-form formula of the optimal coefficient ρ of the proposed STO estimator is derived under the minimum Frobenius risk. Since the true covariance matrix is to be estimated, we further propose a STO approximating (STOA) algorithm with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure to iteratively estimate the coefficient ρ and the covariance matrix. We study the finite sample performances of different estimators and our simulation results clearly show the improved performances of the proposed STO estimators. Finally, the proposed STOA method is applied to a real breast cancer gene expression data set.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it