Review: long-term annual conversion rate to dementia was 3.3% in elderly people with mild cognitive impairmentCommentary
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In elderly people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), what is the long-term rate of conversion to dementia? Included studies examined the progression of MCI, defined according to accepted criteria. Outcomes were dementia or probable Alzheimer disease (AD). Medline, EMBASE/Excerpta Medica, and PsycINFO (to Mar 2008) were searched for cohort studies that had ⩾5 years of follow-up. 15 studies (n = 2402, mean age 62–82 y) met the selection criteria. Mean follow-up was 6 years (range 5–10 y). The cumulative conversion rate to dementia was 31% (15 studies) and to AD was 33% (11 studies). The table shows annual conversion rates. Annual conversion rates …
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.011 | 0.053 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.006 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.003 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".