Classification of Annual Great Lakes Ice Cycles: Winters of 1973–2002*
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Annual seasonal average ice cover from 1973 to 2002 and associated dates of first ice, last ice, and ice duration are presented and discussed. The annual seasonal average ice cover of each Great Lake is used to define three ice cycle classes: mild, typical, and severe. About half of the severe ice cycles occurred from 1977 to 1982 and about half of the mild ice cycles occurred from 1998 to 2002. The seasonal progression of daily lake-averaged ice cover, spatial differences in ice cover, and differences among the Great Lakes for mild, typical, and severe ice cycles are discussed within the context of lake bathymetry and winter air temperatures. Seasonal average ice cover is larger on Lakes Superior, Erie, and Huron relative to Lakes Michigan and Ontario, because of shallower depths (for Erie and Huron) and lower air temperatures (for Superior) relative to Lakes Michigan and Ontario. This ice cycle classification scheme can be used to compare future Great Lakes ice cycle severity with this 30-winter benchmark.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".