A case of severe frost damage prior to budbreak in young conifers in Northeastern Ontario: Consequence of climate change?
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In spring 2007, young planted and natural conifers suffered extensive needle and bud injury near Hearst and Kapuskasing in northeastern Ontario. Damage was observed on all species of conifers up to 20 years old and 8 m in height. Taller trees, especially those in the overstory, and young understory trees protected by a closed canopy had less damage. The damage was caused by earlier than normal loss of cold hardiness followed by late spring frosts according to damage observations, weather station data, and calculated thermal time requirements for budbreak and cold hardiness of conifers. During May 19 to 21, 2007, minimum temperatures were recorded between -8°C and -9°C, and before this period, temperatures were warm enough to induce early dehardening and loss of trees' cold hardiness. According to the historical weather data for Kapuskasing, estimated budbreak time has become earlier since 1918 and freezing temperatures during budbreak and shoot elongation (between growing degree days 100 and June 15) have become more frequent since 1980. If the trend towards earlier budbreak is due to climate change, then the type of frost damage we observed in northeastern Ontario in 2007 could become more common. We discuss implications of such events and suggest research needed to understand the risk of frost damage with climatic warming and to reduce damage. Key words: conifer frost damage, mature needle and bud (or needle/bud) mortality, early dehardening and budbreak (or dehardening/budbreak), climatic warming
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".