On Characteristic Timescales of Glacier AX010 in the Nepalese Himalaya
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Observations indicate that over the past few decades, valley glaciers and ice caps in the Nepalese Himalaya have been continuously shrinking in response to climate warming. The response timescales of these glaciers are not yet well understood. Considering the case of Glacier AX010, this paper examines several methods for estimating the rate of glacier response to changes in climate. In spite of having simple model physics and requiring only a few and often available field data, simpler analytical methods yield reasonable estimates of timescale. Detailed analytical and numerical ice-flow models suggest that the response times for Glacier AX010 are on the order of 50 years. These magnitudes are slightly larger than field evidence indicates for typical valley glaciers, indicating that Glacier AX010 responds relatively slowly to changing climate. Nonetheless, sustained century-scale warming as forecasted for the Nepalese Himalaya would provide sufficient time for Glacier AX010 to respond to this climatic disequilibrium. Given the fact that the glacier already lacks a persistent accumulation zone, we foresee a complete retreat of the glacier by 2100.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".