A biotic agent promotes large‐scale catastrophic change in the coastal marshes of Hudson Bay
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Summary Herbivores may initiate small changes to plant–soil systems that trigger positive feedbacks leading to rapid catastrophic shifts in vegetative states, including irreversible changes in soil properties. In the coastal marshes of Hudson and James bays, foraging by increasing numbers of lesser snow geese ( Chen caerulescens caerulescens A.O.U.) has led to loss of vegetation, and exposure and partial erosion of sediment. Multi‐temporal analysis of LANDSAT data has been carried out to detect vegetation change from 1973 to 1999 or later at nine sites in the coastal marshes of these bays where staging and/or breeding geese are present annually. Images were co‐registered, and for each image NDVI (Normalized Differential Vegetation Index) channels were generated. For each location, pairwise normalized differences were calculated between these NDVI images for each successive period defined by the imagery acquisition dates. The resulting secondary NDVI difference images expressed changes in NDVI values for each time interval and yielded three well‐defined classes: water, vegetation decline and no detectable change in vegetation. At the nine widely separated study sites, the intertidal saltmarsh (an ecological sere) has been lost (to a total of 35 000 ha) and an alternative stable state (exposed sediment) established. Similar changes have occurred elsewhere along the 2000‐km coastline where the geese breed or stage. Re‐vegetation of these coastal marshes will take decades because of near‐irreversible changes in soil properties that require erosion and re‐deposition of unconsolidated sediment before large‐scale plant colonization can occur, and because large numbers of geese continue to forage annually producing this dramatic top‐down effect.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it