Historical fire regime shifts related to climate teleconnections in the Waswanipi area, central Quebec, Canada
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The synchrony of regional fire regime shifts across the Quebec boreal forest, eastern Canada, suggests that regional fire regimes are influenced by large-scale climate variability. The present study investigated the relationship of the forest-age distribution, reflecting the regional fire activity, to large-scale climate variations. The interdecadal variation in forest fire activity in the Waswanipi area, north-eastern Canada, was reconstructed over 1720–2000. Next, the 1880–2000 reconstructed fire activity was analysed using different proxies of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We estimated the global fire cycle around 132–153 years, with a major lengthening of the fire cycle from 99 years before 1940, to 282 years after 1940. Correlations between decadal fire activity and climate indices indicated a positive influence of the PDO. The positive influence of PDO on regional fire activity was also validated using t-tests between fire years and non-fire years between 1899 and 1996. Our results confirmed recent findings on the positive influence of the PDO on the fire activity over northern Quebec and the reinforcing role of the NAO in this relationship.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".