The cohesion effect of structural equivalence on global bilateral trade, 1948–2000
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This article bridges two important approaches in the study of global trade – social network analysis and the gravity model – and examines how countries’ structural locations in the global trade network influence bilateral trade from 1948 through 2000. The authors identify a cohesion effect of structural equivalence (the degree to which two nodes have similar ties with other nodes in the network) in global trade: two structurally equivalent countries develop more bilateral trade even after controlling for conventional dyadic factors. This is because common trading ties with other countries promote similar sociocultural values, information flows, and converging institutions, thereby boosting bilateral trade. The authors further demonstrate that the cohesion-generating role of structural equivalence has become more salient over time in the increasingly complex global trade network. Overall, this study shows that bilateral trade is embedded within the structural context of the overall global trade network, and this structural effect is historically contingent on the evolving nature of global economic activities.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it